Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks.

We formalize coherence --a requirement that erroneous predictions, within a slice, should be wrong for the same reason --as a key property that any slice discovery method should satisfy.

Influence functions (IF) have been seen as a technique for explaining model predictions through the lens of the training data.

Local treatment effects are a common quantity found throughout the empirical sciences that measure the treatment effect among those who comply with what they are assigned. Most of the literature is focused on estimating the average of such quantity, which is called the " local average treatment effect (LATE) " [

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.

We will highlight where future work can build upon these findings.

The influence maximization (IM) problem aims to identify a budgeted set of nodes with the highest potential to influence the largest number of users in a cascade model, a key challenge in viral marketing. Traditional \emph{IM} approaches consider each user/node independently as a potential target customer. However, in many scenarios, the target customers comprise motifs, where activating only one or a few users within a motif is insufficient for effective viral marketing, which, nevertheless, receives little attention. For instance, if a motif of three friends planning to dine together, targeting all three simultaneously is crucial for a restaurant advertisement to succeed.In this paper, we address the motif-oriented influence maximization problem under the linear threshold model. We prove that the motif-oriented IM problem is NP-hard and that the influence function is neither supermodular nor submodular, in contrast to the classical \emph{IM} setting.To simplify the problem, we establish the submodular upper and lower bounds for the influence function. By leveraging the submodular property, we propose a natural greedy strategy that simultaneously maximizes both bounds. Our algorithm has an approximation ratio of $\tau\cdot (1-1/e-\varepsilon)$ and a near-linear time complexity of $O((k+l)(m+\eta)\log \eta/\varepsilon^2)$.Experimental results on diverse datasets confirm the effectiveness of our approach in motif maximization.

Existing semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms use a single weight to balance the loss of labeled and unlabeled examples, i.e., all unlabeled examples are equally weighted. But not all unlabeled data are equal. In this paper we study how to use a different weight for "every" unlabeled example. Manual tuning of all those weights -- as done in prior work -- is no longer possible. Instead, we adjust those weights via an algorithm based on the influence function, a measure of a model's dependency on one training example. To make the approach efficient, we propose a fast and effective approximation of the influence function. We demonstrate that this technique outperforms state-of-the-art methods on semi-supervised image and language classification tasks.

Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the "Napkin graph", a causal structure that encapsulates patterns of M-bias, instrumental variables, and the classical back-door and front-door models within a single graphical framework, yet requires a nonstandard identification strategy: the average treatment effect is expressed as a ratio of two g-formulas. We develop novel estimators for this functional, including doubly robust one-step and targeted minimum loss-based estimators that remain asymptotically linear when nuisance functions are estimated at slower-than-parametric rates using machine learning. We also show how a generalized independence restriction encoded by the Napkin graph, known as a Verma constraint, can be exploited to improve efficiency, illustrating more generally how such constraints in hidden variable DAGs can inform semiparametric inference. The proposed methods are validated through simulations and applied to the Finnish Life Course study to estimate the effect of educational attainment on income. An accompanying R package, napkincausal, implements all proposed procedures.

Data attribution aims to explain model predictions by estimating how they would change if certain training points were removed, and is used in a wide range of applications, from interpretability and credit assignment to unlearning and privacy. Even in the relatively simple case of linear regressions, existing mathematical analyses of leading data attribution methods such as Influence Functions (IF) and single Newton Step (NS) remain limited in two key ways. First, they rely on global strong convexity assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. Second, the resulting bounds scale very poorly with the number of parameters ($d$) and the number of samples removed ($k$). As a result, these analyses are not tight enough to answer fundamental questions such as "what is the asymptotic scaling of the errors of each method?" or "which of these methods is more accurate for a given dataset?" In this paper, we introduce a new analysis of the NS and IF data attribution methods for convex learning problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of these questions that does not assume global strong convexity and also the first explanation of [KATL19] and [RH25a]'s observation that NS data attribution is often more accurate than IF. We prove that for sufficiently well-behaved logistic regression, our bounds are asymptotically tight up to poly-logarithmic factors, yielding scaling laws for the errors in the average-case sample removals. \[ \mathbb{E}_{T \subseteq [n],\, |T| = k} \bigl[ \|\hatθ_T - \hatθ_T^{\mathrm{NS}}\|_2 \bigr] = \widetildeΘ\!\left(\frac{k d}{n^2}\right), \qquad \mathbb{E}_{T \subseteq [n],\, |T| = k} \bigl[ \|\hatθ_T^{\mathrm{NS}} - \hatθ_T^{\mathrm{IF}}\|_2 \bigr] = \widetildeΘ\!\left( \frac{(k + d)\sqrt{k d}}{n^2} \right). \]